Tag Archives: modelling

Go for DATA

By Gérard Weisbuch

(A contribution to the: JASSS-Covid19-Thread)

I totally share the view on the importance of DATA. What we need is data driven models and the reference to weather forecasting and data assimilation is very appropriate. This probably implies the establishment of a center for epidemics forecasting similar to Reading in the UK or Météo-France in Toulouse. The persistence of such an institution in “normal times” would be hard to warrant, but its operation could be organised as the military reserve.

Let me stress three points.

  1. Models are needed not only by National Policy makers but by a wide range of decision makers such as hospitals and even households. These meso-scales units face hard problems of supplies: hospitals have to manage the supplies of material, consumables, personnel to face hard to predict demand from patients. The same holds true for households: e.g. how to program errands in view of the dynamics of the epidemics? All the supply chain issues also exist for firms, including the chain of deliveries of consumables to hospitals. Hence the importance of available data provided by a center for epidemics forecasting.
  2. The JASSS call (Flaminio et al. 2020) stresses the importance DATA, but does not provide many clues about how to get them. One can hope that some institutions would provide them, but my limited experience is that you have to dig for them. Do It Yourself is a leitmotiv of the Big Data industry. I am thinking of processing patient records to build models of the disease, or private diaries and tweets to model individual behaviour. One then needs collaboration from the NLP (Natural Language Processing) community.
  3. The public and even the media have a very low understanding of dynamical systems and of exponential growth. We know since D. Kahneman book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” (2011) that we have a hard time reasoning on probabilities for instance, but this also applies to dynamics and exponential. We face situations that mandate different actions at different stage of the epidemics such as doing errands or moving to the country-side for town dwellers. The issue is even more difficult for firms, who have to manage employment. Simple models and experimental cognitive science results should be brought to journalists and the general public concerning these issues, in the style of Kahneman if possible.

References

Kahneman, D., & Patrick, E. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Allen Lane.

Squazzoni, Flaminio, Polhill, J. Gareth, Edmonds, Bruce, Ahrweiler, Petra, Antosz, Patrycja, Scholz, Geeske, Chappin, Émile, Borit, Melania, Verhagen, Harko, Giardini, Francesca and Gilbert, Nigel (2020) Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 23(2):10. <http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/23/2/10.html>. doi: 10.18564/jasss.4298


Weisbuch, G. (2020) Go for DATA. Review of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 7th April 2020. https://rofasss.org/2020/04/07/go-for-data/


 

Vision for a more rigorous “replication first” modelling journal

By David Hales

A proposal for yet another journal? My first reaction to any such suggestion is to argue that we already have far too many journals. However, hear me out.

My vision is for a modelling journal that is far more rigorous than what we currently have. It would be aimed at work in which a significant aspect of the result is derived from the output of a complex system type computer model in an empirical way.

I propose that the journal would incorporate, as part of the reviewing process, at least one replication of the model by an independent reviewer. Hence models would be verified as independently replicated before being published.

In addition the published article would include an appendix detailing the issues raised during the replication process.

Carrying out such an exercise would almost certainly lead to clarifications of the original article such that it would easier to replicate by others and give more confidence in the results. Both readers and authors would gain significantly from this.

I would be much more willing to take modelling articles seriously if I knew they had already been independently replicated.

Here is a question that immediately springs to mind: replicating a model is a time consuming and costly business requiring significant expertise. Why would a reviewer do this?

One possible solution would be to provide an incentive in the following form. Final articles published in the journal would include the replicators as co-authors of the paper – specifically credited with the independent replication work that they write up in the appendix.

This would mean that good, clear and interesting initial articles would be desirable to replicate since the reviewer / replicator would obtain citations.

This could be a good task for an able graduate student allowing them to gain experience, contacts and citations.

Why would people submit good work to such a journal? This is not as easy to answer. It would almost certainly mean more work from their perspective and a time delay (since replication would almost certainly take more time than traditional review). However there is the benefit of actually getting a replication of their model and producing a final article that others would be able to engage with more easily.

Also I think it would be necessary, given the above aspects, to put quite a high bar on what is accepted for review / replication in the first place. Articles reviewed would have to present significant and new results in areas of fairly wide interest. Hence incremental or highly specific models would be ruled out. Also articles that did not contain enough detail to even attempt a replication would be rejected on that basis. Hence one can envisage a two stage review process where the editors decide if the submitted paper is “right” for a full replication review before soliciting replications.

My vision is of a low output, high quality, high initial rejection journal. Perhaps publishing 3 articles every 6 months. Ideally this would support a reputation for high quality over time.


Hales, D. (2018) Vision for a more rigorous “replication first” modelling journal. Review of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 5th November 2018. https://rofasss.org/2018/11/05/dh/